Market Update: Insights for Integral Master Trust investors and the broader New Zealand market
From a financial perspective, the last few years have delivered a consistent theme: inflation. Across the world, post-COVID “revenge-spending” had pushed up demand for goods and services, leading to higher prices aka inflation. This rising inflation rapidly spiked to worrying levels and spurred central banks to take dramatic action (some moving faster than others) to address the inflationary pressures. The primary weapon in the central banks’ arsenals was to increase interest rates. The underlying logic was that increasing interest rates (which would eventually filter through to higher business loan and mortgage rates) would deprive both businesses and consumers of spare funds to spend on other areas. This reduction in spending would, in turn, lead to lower demand for goods and services and eventually to lower prices.
Pleasingly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced in October that high inflation had mostly been defeated around the world. “It looks like the global battle against inflation has largely been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries,” the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook. “In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets… The decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement,” the IMF added, cautioning, however, that “vigilance remains key.”
On that positive note, we now look at how New Zealand and its major trading partners fared over the quarter.
New Zealand – After many months of the Reserve Bank declaring that interest rates would remain high well into 2025, inflation began trending downwards on the back of very poor economic growth data and recently hit 2.2%: well within the 1%-3% target band. Rising unemployment, lower business and consumer confidence and falling government spending are just some of the economic headwinds we are facing. A silver lining: for now, we have not officially entered a recession.
United States – The US looks to have engineered the much vaunted “soft landing” in which the Federal Reserve has achieved the enviable result of increasing interest rates sufficiently to rein inflation back to within its tolerance range but has not stifled the wider economy or caused significant economic hardship. Employment data remains strong, financial markets keep testing record highs and there is a clear and widely accepted path for future interest rate cuts. Risks remain in this apparent “Goldilocks” outcome with upcoming presidential and congressional elections in November being too close to call, rising geopolitical tensions (especially with China), unresolved conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East (including Israel) and Taiwan, all of which are exacerbated by uncertainty as to the political positions that the US will take post November.
Europe – Appearing to have tamed inflationary pressures, Europe faces harder economic problems than the US and growth remains sluggish. The Russia/Ukraine conflict remains on Europe’s doorstep with the ever-present threat that the conflict will expand. Further complicating the economic hazards facing Europe, it is currently engaged in a series of tit-for-tat trade sanctions and tariffs with China, primarily over electric vehicles but there is an increasing risk that China’s retaliatory actions cause the dispute to spiral into a full trade war. A trade war would likely have the most severe impact on Germany, Europe’s largest economy and an exporting powerhouse, which has commonly been the primary driver of economic growth in the region – a fact that may account for Germany being one of the EU’s most China “dovish” countries.
Japan – Japan’s share market has been especially volatile during the quarter. An interest rate hike in August saw the main Japanese index fall by 12% in a day in early August. It largely recovered those losses in the following days but performance remained highly volatile and it ended the September quarter lower than it began.
China – A significant number of economic hurdles remain in China’s path. It faces deflationary pressure in contrast to most of the rest of the world, low consumer spending, a residential property crisis that has persisted for a number of years, trade tensions with its most important trade partners, political tensions with its neighbours in the South China Sea and Taiwan, and a local government debt crisis. The central government has recently taken steps to stimulate its economy including easing bank lending restrictions and introducing a massive new spending program, though the full extent of this stimulus package is unclear. The world’s second largest economy faces a difficult period ahead and the success or otherwise of its decisions will have a global impact.
United Kingdom – From having an inflation rate that reached lofty heights of 11% last year, the UK recently reported an annual inflation rate of 1.7% in September, raising the prospect of interest rate cuts in the future. The UK faces a series of macro-economic issues similar to Europe.
Australia – The “lucky country” faced similar problems to New Zealand, with high interest rates successfully lowering inflation but struggling to lower it below 3%. With a significantly larger and more diversified economy than New Zealand and strong employment data, Australia has been weathering the downturn comparatively well to date, but the country remains heavily exposed to China’s economic fortunes.
How did the Integral Master Trust funds fare?
With an end result of a reasonable, if not strong return for the quarter, the month-on-month performance was anything but steady. The quarter started with an emphatic flourish in July delivering very strong equity market returns (as an example, the Global Equities Fund had a one month return of approximately 6%, which would be 72% at an annualised rate and well above the return for the diversified funds). August saw the equity markets hand back some of July’s impressive gains. Using the Global Equities Fund to elaborate, it declined about 3% for the month, again a larger decline than the diversified funds. September rolled around and equity markets continued to experience volatility throughout the month. By the end of September, the Global Equities Fund had eked out a small gain of approximately 0.5% - coincidentally the same as the diversified funds. In line with its investment purpose and in contrast to the equity-based funds, the Defensive Fund delivered a consistent return throughout the three months of equity market volatility.
This demonstrates two important lessons for investors:
- The funds are operating as expected. Lower risk funds like the Defensive Fund are delivering consistent returns during volatile times, while the funds with a higher exposure to growth assets like shares are delivering higher returns with higher volatility.
- Investors need to understand the level of volatility to which they are exposed and be comfortable with that. The vast majority of our investors have been invested for 5+, 10+ years so what happens over 1, 2 and 3 months or even 1 year shouldn’t be the be-all and end-all – keep eyes on long term returns and think of the ups and downs around the averages as exactly that – ups and downs.
If you have questions about how these trends might affect your investments or need tailored advice, please contact our team at NZBritannia. We’re here to support you in achieving your investment goals.
The information contained in this publication is intended for general guidance and information only. It has not been personally prepared for you. Therefore, you should not act on this information if you have not considered the appropriateness of this information to your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. You should consult with us before making any investment decision. Historical market performance may not be indicative of future market performance.